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Disease X-19 Medical Review

Collection : COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv: Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function


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We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indonesia, Spain,South Korea, UK, and Sweden). By using the double exponential function called the Gompertz function, fG(x)=exp(-e-x), the number of infected people is well described as N(t)=N0 fG({gamma}(t-t0)), where N0, {gamma} and t0 are the final total number of infected people, the damping rate of the infection probability and the peak time of dN(t)/dt, respectively. The scaled data of infected people in most of the analyzed countries are found to collapse onto a common scaling function fG(x) with x={gamma}(t-t0) in the range of fG(x) {+/-} 0.05. The recently proposed indicator so-called the K value, the increasing rate of infected people in one week, is also found to show universal behavior. The mechanism for the Gompertz function to appear is discussed from the time dependence of the produced pion numbers in nucleus-nucleus collisions, which is also found to be described by the Gompertz function.

Collection : COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv