We formulate an agent-based model and a compartmental model (SEIR) that simulate the spread of a respiratory infectious disease between two neighboring cities. We consider preventive measures such as implementation of social distancing and lockdown in a city, as well as the effect of protective gears or practices. The chance of travelling to another city and within the city during lockdown, and initial percentage of exposed and infected individuals on both cities influence the increase in the number of newly-infected individuals on both models. Our simulations show that (i) increase in exposed individuals results in increase in number of new infections, hence the need for increased testing-isolation efforts; (ii) protection level of 75-100% effectiveness impedes disease transmission; (iii) travelling within city or to other city can be an option given that strict preventive measures (e.g., non-pharmaceutical interventions) are observed; and (iv) the ideal set-up for neighboring cities is to implement lockdown when there is high risk of disease local transmission while individuals observe social distancing, maximizing protective measures, and isolating those that are exposed. The results of the agent-based and compartmental models show similar qualitative dynamics; the differences are due to different spatio-temporal heterogeneity and stochasticity. These models can aid decision makers in designing infectious disease-related policies to protect individuals while continuing population movement.
Collection : COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv