Disease X-19 Medical Review

medrxiv Subject Collection: Infectious Diseases: Impact of COVID-19 Attributable Deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Sweden and Germany

In a short span of four months, the COVID-19 pandemic has added over 0.4 million deaths worldwide, which are untimely, premature and unwarranted. The USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden are four worst affected countries, accounting to over 40% of COVID-19 attributable deaths on longevity, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and disability adjusted life years (DALY) in USA, Italy, Germay and Sweden. Data from United Nation Population Projection, Statista and Centre for disease control and prevention were used in the analyses. Life expectancy, YPLL and DALY were estimated under four scenarios; no COVID-19 deaths, actual number of COVID-19 deaths as of 22nd May, 2020 and anticipating COVID-19 death share of 6% and 10% , respectively. The COVID-19 attributable deaths have lowered the life expectancy by 0.4 year each in USA and Sweden, o.5 year in Italy and 0.1 year in Germany. The loss of YPLL was 1.5, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.5 million in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Comapression in life expectancy and increase in YPLL and DALY may intensify further if death continues to soar. COVID-19 has a marked impact on mortality. Reduction in longevity, premature mortality and loss of DALY is higher among elderly. Key Words: COVID-19, Mortality, life expectancy, Italy, USA, Germany, Sweden

medrxiv Subject Collection: Infectious Diseases